Recently, Art Basel and UBS published their 2024 Global Art Market Report, completed by the research and consulting firm Arts Economics. This year, their research and data reveal that despite the overall negative market trends, there were notable positive developments that could indicate the future direction of auction houses and the sector overall.
Throughout 2024, geopolitical tensions, political uncertainty, and economic instability in many of the developed parts of the world negatively impacted the art market, causing a 12% contraction in global sales. Hit worst by this was China, whose sales numbers have dipped to lows not seen since 2009, and its position as the second largest art market was lost to the United Kingdom.
2024 marks a sharp decline in the art market following a strong rally within the market following the pandemic and a slower 2023. Both auction houses and dealers were hit hard by the 2024 downturn, by 25% and 6%, respectively, although the total amount of translations improved by 3%, especially among lower-end market segments. Interestingly, private auction sales have seemingly bucked the negative trend with a 14% year-on-year growth.
The high-value side of the auctions was the worst hit by far. However, lower-end sales, auction house private sales, and online sales either saw stability or not insignificant success during the widely tumultuous year. The full report can be read here.
Art Basel Hong Kong in 2025
The trend in growth of the global art market, note that even while there is a steady decline, the volume, indicated by the teal line, has outpaced sales values (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
The General data and overall contraction of the art market in 2024:
Digging deeper into the data shows that the rapid recovery from the 2020 pandemic low, which saw a strong market in the years of 2021 and 2022, began to dip in 2023 with -4% growth and then drop even more in 2024 with -12% growth.
What drove this decline can be generally attributed to the wider global concerns about the economy and the looming recession fears. This was most likely coupled with geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty around the US election and a second Trump administration. That in particular was a highlight in the UBS report, as the Trump government in its first term closed tax loopholes that reduced capital gains tax on collectors buying; fears that this could return in this administration might make American buyers wary.
Growth broke down into percentages. Note that while there was a rapid pandemic-period recovery, this seemed to be a rapid correction followed by a return to slow growth and decline (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
The art market by region (the United States, Europe, and China):
Regarding the global situation, while there was an overall downturn, this impacted some countries worse than others. The United States is the highest-earning art market by far, accounting for 43% of the market. Long-time second place to the US, China lost its position, declining by 4% to 15% of the global market to third place. The UK took China’s place, growing by 1%.
If going by region, Europe experienced a negative year. While France recovered well after the pandemic, soaring to a US$5 billion market cap in 2022, and continues to be the world’s fourth largest market, 2024 saw a 10% loss in sales, leading to a total of US$4.2 billion. This negative trend was mirrored across the region with an 8% decline, with there being a smaller 4% decline in Germany and a much larger one of 10% in Italy. Just outside the EU in Switzerland, there was a 3% decline.
Sotheby's brand new Paris headquarters. Featuring facilities meant for private sales, most likely aimed at growing that business
Asia experienced a much less stable year in the art market. While China experienced a major decline, most likely caused by its slowing economy and tariffs on goods, including some Chinese paintings and works of art, South Korea was hit with an even sharper market decline of 15%. Japan was one of the few countries, alongside the UK, to see 2% market growth. However, while a slowing economy certainly didn't help China's art market, another culprit was the art on offer. To quote the report, "Part of the contraction in sales in China resulted from fewer high-end works appearing on the market." Adding to the issue was a 41% rise in non-payments after sales.
China’s decline in particular is being attributed to its mainland sales. In Hong Kong, sales dropped only by 4%, while in Beijing, there was a 73% drop in sales value. Chinese auction houses were also hit hard, with China Guardian taking a loss of roughly 33% of their 2023 value and Poly China seeing a sales freefall of 67%.
US tariffs have seemed to become one of the key factors driving down the global art market, as not only have tariffs impacted the Chinese market, but also the European one. Due to punitive tariffs implemented by the US, art market dealers and houses have found that, in particular, prints, photographs, and antiquities are seeing a decline in US sales due to customers not wanting to deal with the administrative and cost hassles now associated with transatlantic business.
The breakdown of the 2024 global market art share by country, notice the steady decline in China, but also the growth of other parts of the world, including the EU (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
This graph tracks the imports and exports of art in the US. Note the steady decline in Europe in 2025, directly correlating with tariffs impeding business (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
The performance of the major auction houses (Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillips, and Bonhams):
As for the high-end auction houses, including Sotheby’s, Christie’s, Bonhams, and Phillips saw a revenue of 13.5 billion across all segments, an 18% decline from 16.5 billion last year. Sotheby’s alone, excluding its subsidiaries, saw its auction sales total US$3.4 billion, a sharp decline from its 2021 peak of US$5.9 billion. Sotheby’s also cut 49 of its sales to a total of 466, with around half of that being online sales, which account for the majority of the house’s growth.
Christie’s was slightly better off with a decline in sales of only 6% compared to last year, a reduction from US$6.1 billion to US$5.7 billion. The Christie’s pandemic and post-pandemic recovery years were a bit of an anomaly, and now figures have settled down to roughly 2019 levels. The company also saw strong interest in individual lots, with the company recording that the average number of bidders per lot rose by 9% to 3.7. Additionally, their Asian market has seen new interest, with younger clients accounting for 44% of all buyers and bidders being millennials or younger.
Sotheby's newly opened Asian hub office, which includes retail elements that are part of their overall private sales
René Magritte's L'Empire des lumières, sold by Christie's New York, was the top-selling lot of the year at US$121.1 million
As for Phillips, they saw a 16% decline in sales to US$843 million, down from US$1 billion last year and a US$1.3 billion peak in 2022. However, one of Phillips’ strongest performing areas in 2024 was its ability to attract new clients to the firm. 31% of buyers at the auctions were new to Phillips, with the share of sales to that segment of new buyers accounting for 26% of sales.
As for Bonhams, their market shifted strongly into online sales, with that accounting for 70% of all their lots sold, which accounted for 20% of their sale value when excluding their North European subsidiaries. However, this did not stave off the decline in sales seen in their competitors, as they went from a record high in 2023 of US$1.1 billion to a total of US$988 million this year. Their Hong Kong division was, however, able to buck the trend of declining Asian sales with an 18% growth equal to US$86 million.
This graph shows the value of sales in the online section of the art market. It peaked during the lockdown period, and has declined, but has entrenched itself as a minor, but key, part of auction houses (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
Breaking down private sales and online sales:
Important to note across all major auction houses and the market as a whole is that online sales remained steady. While down from 25% of total sales in 2022 to a respectable 18% in 2024, this is still double that of any year prior to the pandemic and seems to indicate the stability of this subsection of the market. Online transactions also tended to dominate the lower end of the market, exceeding the share of sales of offline sales in categories of US$250,000 and below.
Additionally, for all major auction houses except Phillips, private sales went contrary to the declining market. Sotheby’s saw an increase of 17% to US$1.4 billion, and Christie’s saw a 41% increase to a total of US$1.5 billion. This is being attributed to the way private sales are structured and negotiated, and the overall uncertainty in the market, as consigners may feel safer by selling their works privately and being sure of a good return rather than gambling on the auction floor.
The overall strength in online sales is in the lower-end segments of the market, with the high-end still being dominated by offline sales (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
A yearly comparison of art sales and the composition of public and private sales. While an overall decline can be seen the share of private sales has continued to grow (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
The segments of the art market and breaking down the categories of fine art:
Breaking down the rest of the art market and its pricing segments, this year has seen a continued slowdown of the highest-priced works segments, and this is the main culprit in the low growth of the sector. The report considers this a supply-based problem, where the flurry of sales in the early 2020s caused a decline in available works priced over US$10 million. At the same time, lower-end sales have dominated the market, especially lots worth at or below US$50,000.
Across the lots, sold paintings were by far and away the dominant type of lot that was sold on the art market, accounting for 36% of all sales. Within that segment, there is fine art, which is further broken down into various categories, including Post-war and Contemporary, Modern, Impressionists, Old Masters, and others.
A breakdown of how different priced segments of art performed in 2024 regarding volume versus value (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
A breakdown of where various types of art rank in terms of sales value and volume (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
Ed Ruscha (b.1938) | Standard Station, Ten-Cent Western Being Torn in Half (1964) | Sold for around US$68.2 million by Christie's New York | The second most expensive lot sold in 2024 and the most expensive Post-War and Contemporary painting
Looking at Post-War and Contemporary, the value of sales has decreased. That being said, it continues to be the largest segment of the fine art auction market, with sales volume having grown by 5% this year to a 10-year record high. The United States was still the major market for this sector, with paintings such as Ed Ruscha’s record-setting Standard Station, Ten-Cent Western Being Torn in Half (1964).
Following Post-War and Contemporary, Modern art was the second largest section of the market, but its rapid post-pandemic recovery has faltered, leaving it at levels before 2019. While the volume of sales has increased by 17% this year, the total value of these sales has dropped to less than half of the value in 2014.
The third largest part of the fine arts market was Impressionism and Post-Impressionism, which totaled around 14% of the total value and 12% of the total lots sold. While the value dipped from 2023, the volume, like all other sectors, increased, and the area has remained stable, all things considered. Coming out of the pandemic, Impressionism had one of the strongest recoveries of all the fine art branches; however, the supply of lots has dropped dramatically, causing it to be 38% lower in value compared to 2014.
Claude Monet (1840-1916) | Nymphéas (1914-1917) | Sold for US$65.5 million by Sotheby's New York | This Monet was the third highest selling lot of the year, and it, along with various other high-profile works, boosted the sales results of the entire Impressionist sector
A comparison of how different types of painting performed in 2024 (sourced from Arts Economics via Art Basel & UBS)
Looking towards 2025 and the future:
Looking towards the future, while the world’s developed economies may have in some way recovered to an extent or are in the process of recovering, there are still fears of a global recession, and this may shake the willingness of buyers to spend. Furthermore, there are slowing rates of luxury consumption by the art market’s third-largest market: China. Although the 44% rise in new buyers seen by Christie’s Hong Kong could show some long-term positive trends.
The largest elephant in the room is instability caused by tariffs. At the time of writing, China and the US have engaged in a full trade war, which will most likely have ramifications on the art market as the Chinese reduce their appetite for excessive spending and may be less willing to spend their money on foreign brands from hostile countries, according to UBS. There is also a possibility that currency fluctuations, caused by the trade war, may discourage Chinese clients from buying in Hong Kong, as they previously enjoyed a relative discount on art due to the RMB being weaker than the Hong Kong Dollar.
Furthermore, there was already a decline in US-EU art market trade due to the existing tariffs that have hampered the free flow of goods, including art. US tariffs on the EU, which it is unknown if this includes the preexisting punitive tariffs levied under the Biden administration, now sit at 10% and will most likely continue to worsen the movement of art and collections between the regions, further putting off buyers. Additionally, starting from June 2025, the European Union will be enacting new legislation that will hamper and complicate the importing of art from outside the EU, in a move highly criticized by those within the art industry as overcomplicating and hampering their business.